Global Shippers Race the Clock Ahead of November Tariff Deadline

The air freight market on the China–U.S. trans-Pacificroute is heating up as American importers rush to move goodsbefore the proposed 100% tariff on Chinese productstakes effect on November 1, 2025.
While theWhite House’s official confirmation is still pending, PresidentDonald Trump’s statement on October 10 has alreadytriggered a surge in demand — and a noticeable rise in rates.

Why the Rush? Rare Earths and Risk Management

The proposed tariff is Washington’s response to Beijing’stightened export controls on rare earth minerals,materials vital to high-tech, renewable energy, and defensesectors.
“Many shippers are rushing to get theirairfreight shipments into the U.S. before November 1 to beat theadditional tariffs,” said Sanjay Tejwani, CEO of365 Logistics.
Industry leaders see the move as part of anegotiation strategy aimed at influencing China’sexport policies — but that hasn’t stopped importers from actingfast to secure space.

Air Freight Rates Jump, but Remain Contained

According to Freightos, air freight rates climbed19% the week after the announcement, reaching $5.30per kilogram, though they have since stabilized.
“Airfreight volume into the U.S. is surging this week ahead of thepotential tariffs,” confirmed Kathy Liu, VP ofGlobal Sales & Marketing at Dimerco Express Group.

One factor helping to prevent rates from skyrocketing: ampleair capacity.
Carriers had anticipated anotherpre-tariff surge — this being the third such round— and moved quickly to deploy more aircraft.

Capacity Expands as Carriers Mobilize

Data from Rotate, an air cargo analytics firm,shows that in the week following the announcement, availablecapacity from China to the U.S. jumped 24% versus theprevious week, and is now 21% higher year-on-year.
“Thislevel of preparedness has kept pricing more stable than in previoustariff shocks,” said Glyn Hughes, Director Generalof TIACA (The International Air CargoAssociation).
“However,” he added, “theseconstant frontloading spikes disrupt the network balance and makeconsistent operations difficult.”

Broader Implications: Volatility as the NewNormal

The latest tariff tensions highlight a recurring pattern in globallogistics: geopolitical risk translating into supply chainvolatility.
While ocean freight remains the backbone oftrade, air freight continues to serve as the go-to mode forurgent shipments when tariff windows narrow and uncertaintylooms.
For logistics leaders, agility and scenario planning —supported by data-driven visibility tools — arenow critical to navigating unpredictable policy shifts.

🧭 Key Takeaways

• U.S. importers are accelerating shipments before the Nov. 1 100% tariff deadline.
• Air freight rates rose 19% week-on-week but remain steady due to added capacity.
• Available trans-Pacific air cargo capacity is 24% higher than before the tariff announcement.
• Industry analysts warn repeated frontloading cycles disrupt pricing stability.
• The episode underscores the need for resilient, multimodal strategies in volatile trade environments.
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Source: https://www.joc.com/article/china-air-freight-demand-rates-surge-on-new-100-us-tariff-6099961

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