Renewed Houthi threats amid rising US–Iran tensions are casting fresh doubt on container carriers’ tentative plans to return to the Suez Canal. While a few lines cautiously test the route, most global operators continue to favor Cape of Good Hope diversions as geopolitical risk remains unresolved.
Renewed warnings from Yemen’s Houthi militants have once again unsettled global shipping routes through the Red Sea, just as some carriers were preparing to cautiously resume Suez Canal transits. The escalation comes against the backdrop of rising tensions between the United States and Iran, injecting fresh uncertainty into an already fragile security environment.
Over the weekend, Houthi-linked media circulated videos implying imminent attacks on commercial vessels, signaling that the group may abandon its self-declared pause on Red Sea operations announced latelast year. That pause followed the Israel–Hamas ceasefire in Gazaand had temporarily reduced direct threats to shipping traffic. Recent geopolitical developments, however, suggest that restraint maybe short-lived.
Even before the latest warnings, several major carriers had already begun reassessing their exposure to the Red Sea corridor. CMA CGM, one of the few liners to maintain a consistent presence in theregion, announced it would scale back plans to reroute multiple Asia–Europe westbound services through the Suez, citing a “complex and uncertain international context.”
While regional and backhaul services continue to transit selectively, most global operators remain cautious. For many, the strategic calculus has shifted from transit efficiency to operational resilience, prioritizing predictability over speed.
Maersk’s planned rerouting of its MECL service from India to theUS East Coast through the Suez Canal underscores this cautious approach. While the service is scheduled to adopt the shorter route, Maersk has explicitly noted that contingency plans remain in place should security conditions deteriorate.
This conditional posture reflects a broader industry mindset: carriers are willing to test the waters, but not at the expense of network stability or crew safety. Any deterioration in regional security could prompt an immediate return to Cape of Good Hope diversions.
Since late 2023, most container lines have avoided the Red Sea following a series of attacks linked to the Israel–Hamas conflict. These diversions have had structural consequences for the market. The longer voyages around southern Africa effectively absorb an estimated 8% of global container capacity, helping offset over supply and stabilizing freight rates.
A sudden, large-scale return to the Suez would not simply shorten transit times—it would likely disrupt network balance. Industry observers warn that such a shift could initially trigger port congestion, landside bottlenecks, and short-term cost volatility before longer-term efficiencies emerge.
For shippers, the message is clear: routing decisions in 2026 will remain closely tied to geopolitics, not just economics. While a stabilized Red Sea would ultimately improve transit times and inject pricing competition, the near-term outlook favors caution.
Supply chain leaders must therefore plan for continued variability—building flexibility into routing strategies,contracts, and inventory planning. In this environment, visibility, scenario modeling, and contingency readiness are becoming as critical as freight rates themselves.
