Global container shipping lines are aggressively pulling capacity ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday, aiming to halt a steep slide in spot rates that threatens to push prices toward loss-making levels.

Blank Sailings Surge Across Key Trade Lanes

Carriers have accelerated blank sailings for October, particularly around China’s National Day holiday (Oct. 1–8), when factories close and export demand dips.

• Asia–North America West Coast: -13.6% capacity
• Asia–North America East Coast: -14.4%
• Asia–North Europe: -17%
• Asia–Mediterranean: -16.7%

According to Sea-Intelligence, these reductions bring blank sailings back in line with historical averages—but the timing underscores the urgency carriers feel as spot rates collapse.

Rates Tumble to Pre-Red Sea Levels

Spot freight rates on major lanes have plummeted:

• Asia–US West Coast: down 20% to $1,400/FEU
• Asia–US East Coast: down 9% to $2,500/FEU
• Asia–North Europe: down 8% to $1,400/FEU
• Asia–Mediterranean: down 6% to $1,800/FEU

Analysts warn these rates are approaching breakeven. “Being just5–10% above pre-Red Sea levels is a hard stop for carriers,” noted Xeneta’s Peter Sand.

Demand Shock Looms in Q4

HSBC’s Parash Jain forecasts a US “demand shock” in Q4 that will extend into early 2026. J.P. Morgan echoed this warning, notingthe Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) now signalsloss-making operations. Despite geopolitical disruptions such as RedSea reroutings, oversupply continues to erode carriers’ pricingpower.

Orderbook Expansion Compounds Oversupply

The industry’s structural imbalance is worsening:

• The global orderbook equals 30% of the existing fleet, or 9.7M TEUs.
• More than 1M TEUs of new capacity will enter service before year-end.
• Scrapping remains minimal, further swelling available tonnage.

Alphaliner reports Asia-Europe alone is short 36 vessels to maintain schedules, but even this constraint has not prevented rates from collapsing. Shanghai–North Europe rates have dropped 45%in just 10 weeks, with double-digit weekly declines—a clear signal of intensifying rate wars.

Key Takeaways for Global Logistics Stakeholders

• Carriers’ balancing act: Blank sailings are a short-term fix but do not address chronic oversupply.
• Shippers’ advantage: Low rates may ease transport costs into Q4, but service disruptions could rise.
• Strategic planning required: With volatility stretching into 2026, shippers should diversify partners, leverage real-time intelligence, and prepare for both demand shocks and supply gluts.

At Worldtop & Meta, we continue to monitor these shifts closely—helping businesses navigate rate volatility with data-driven insights, reliable capacity strategies, and trusted partner networks.

‍

Source: https://www.joc.com/article/ocean-carriers-cut-capacity-to-arrest-golden-week-rate-slide-6085086