U.S. airfreight imports are rapidly shifting away from China toward Taiwan and Southeast Asia following changes to U.S. de minimis rules. High-value, time-critical cargo such as semiconductors, electronics, and industrial equipment is driving this realignment, forcing shippers to rethink origin strategies, air capacity planning, and 2026 supply chain resilience.
A fundamental rebalancing is underway in trans-Pacific airfreight. Since the U.S. eliminated the de minimis exemption for low-value imports from China in May 2025 — and expanded the change to all trading partners in August — air cargo flows into the U.S. have shifted decisively away from China toward alternative Asian origins.
While overall inbound U.S. air cargo volumes declined modestly, regular air freight shipments (valued above USD 2,000) increased sharply, underscoring a transition from e-commerce–driven parcels to higher-value commercial cargo.
U.S. air cargo imports from Taiwan jumped nearly 91% year over year in the first nine months of 2025, making it the fastest-growing origin market in the trans-Pacific air trade.
This growth is closely linked to:
These categories align with continued U.S. demand for advanced manufacturing and AI-related technologies.
Vietnam followed closely, with U.S. airfreight imports rising almost 80%, while Thailand recorded growth exceeding40% over the same period.
Collectively, U.S. air cargo imports from:
China-origin U.S. air cargo fell 10.1% year over year, reflecting the direct impact of regulatory changes rather than a collapse in underlying demand.
Importantly, a significant portion of Southeast Asia’s air cargo is still routed indirectly through hubs in:
This suggests that China remains operationally relevant as a regional air logistics hub, even as manufacturing and export origins diversify.
Freighter operators have rapidly repositioned capacity to match new demand patterns. From May through November, direct Southeast Asia–North America airfreight capacity increased 89%,reaching more than 102,000 metric tons.
Meanwhile, China–U.S. airfreight rates climbed above USD8/kg, exceeding last year’s peak, reflecting tighter capacity and continued demand for time-critical shipments.
The data confirms that the shift toward Taiwan and Southeast Asia is not temporary. Regulatory pressure, industrial policy, and high-tech supply chains are reinforcing long-term diversification.
With e-commerce volumes declining, air cargo is reverting to its traditional role: moving critical, high-margin, time-sensitive goods.
As highlighted by regional forwarders, shippers that can pivot across:
will be significantly better positioned than those relying onsingle-country strategies.
Despite near-term trade volatility, the International AirTransport Association forecasts global air cargo growth of 3.1%in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026, signaling stablemedium-term fundamentals for airfreight — particularly intechnology-driven corridors.
Source:https://www.joc.com/article/rising-us-air-freight-imports-from-taiwan-vietnam-offset-drop-in-china-trade-6136057
