A flash surge in import volumes is expected to hit US West Coast ports over the next few weeks as shippers race to beat looming tariff reinstatements. With temporary tariff relief from the Trump administration set to expire on July 9 for general imports and August14 for goods from China, importers are accelerating shipments to avoid higher costs.

🔍 What’s Driving the Surge?

This "quick-hit" spike is tied directly to policy shifts. As tariff exemptions near their end, importers are pulling forward orders that would typically land later in the year, effectively pushing the traditional peak season earlier than usual.

According to Kip Louttit of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, container ship arrivals at Los Angeles and Long Beach are reaching their highest levels since early 2025 and mid-2024. Port forecasts support this:

- Port of Los Angeles
 - This week:138,519 TEUs
 - Next week: 124,713 TEUs
 - Week of July6: 101,003 TEUs

- Port of Long Beach
 - This week:84,109 TEUs
 - Next week: 125,286 TEUs
 - Week of July 6:116,947 TEUs
 - Week of July 13: 93,797 TEUs
 - Week of July 20: 114,073 TEUs

Any week exceeding 100,000 TEUs is considered a “strong” performance for these ports.

📉Weak May Paves Way for Smooth Spike

With May volumes relatively soft—Los Angeles at 320,878 TEUs and Long Beach at296,348 TEUs—the terminals are well-positioned to absorb the temporary surge without congestion. Fewer blank sailings and increased cargo bookings are also boosting traffic into the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) of Seattle and Tacoma.

- NWSA vessel forecasts:
 - June: 55 arrivals
 - July: 49arrivals
 - August: 48 arrivals (up from 46 in May)

📦Spot Rates: Stabilization in Sight?

Rising import volumes may temporarily pause the freefall in eastbound trans-Pacific spot rates, which have declined by 50% from the recent peak of $6,040/FEU in early June. As of this week, Asia–US West Coast spot rates sit at $2,900/FEU, with volatility continuing.

> “The trans-Pac just seems to be such a moving target,” said one Pacific Northwest forwarder. “We’re updating our rates almost daily.”

📊Peak Season Comes Early — and Will Be Short?

With retailers front-loading their shipments, the traditional August–October peak season may already be unfolding. Yet, forecasts from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates suggest a sharp downturn ahead:

- July: -8.1% YoY
- August:-14.7% YoY
- September: -21.8% YoY
- October: -19.8%YoY

⚠️ What's Next?

As the industry braces for the July and August tariff expiration deadlines, the big question remains: Will policymakers extend relief or let tariffs return? Until then, logistics stakeholders are advised to watch vessel arrivals, inventory flow, and pricing movements closely.

Source:https://www.joc.com/article/quick-hit-tariff-driven-import-surge-on-tap-for-us-west-coast-ports-6031227

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