With the 90-day suspension on U.S. tariffs nearing its end on July 9, all eyes in the trans-Atlantic trade lane are watching Washington and Brussels. Ocean carriers, however, are wasting no time—they’ve ramped up westbound capacity to the highest levels seen in a year.
In anticipation of shifting trade policy, ocean carriers are deploying 344,811 TEUs of capacity in July on the Europe-to-U.S. route, according to eeSea. This marks the highest monthly capacity in the past 12 months, with a slight drop expected in August. Despite softer demand, only 24,840 TEU shave been blanked for July, and none so far for August.
This move signals that carriers are preparing for a possible surge in cargo flow should new tariffs hit—or be extended—after the current pause ends.
According to Xeneta, spot rates from North Europe to the U.S. East Coast have stabilized at $1,206 per FEU, following a steep 21.6% drop in Q1. Meanwhile, Platts reports spot rates have held steady at $1,700 per FEU since mid-May.
While the rate decline has slowed, Peter Sand of Xeneta warns that continued rate softening is possible in early July—projecting a further $40 to $50 drop per FEU. Yet, carrier capacity is expected to rise further, possibly reaching 95,000to 97,000 TEUs per week through August.
Data from S&P Global’s PIERS shows:
Casper Ellerbaek of DHL Global Forwarding noted signs of frontloading on some routes but cautioned against interpreting this as a broader demand shift.
With talks between the U.S. and EU ongoing and political rhetoric heating up, the next week will be critical. If tariffs are reinstated—or expanded to sectors like autos, steel, or aluminum—it could reshape trans-Atlantic flows dramatically in Q3.
For logistics professionals, the key will be flexibility and real-time data. Whether you're an importer, forwarder, or carrier, staying nimble will be essential in navigating the uncertain weeks ahead.
Tariffs or Trade Surge? Countdown Begins
July9 could reshape trans-Atlantic logistics.
As the 90-day U.S. tariff pause nears its end, ocean carriers are holding record-high capacity on the Europe-to-U.S. trade lane—despite softening demand and sliding rates. The uncertainty around trade talks with the EU has shippers and forwarders bracing for rapid shifts in pricing, planning, and routing.
Spot rates have held steady at $1,700 per FEU since mid-May, but short-term market indicators suggest further softening is possible. Carriers are prepping for the unexpected—ramping weekly capacity toas high as 97,000 TEUs through August.
Meanwhile, U.S. imports from Europe are already slowing, and signs of limited frontloading indicate the industry is in “wait-and-see” mode. If tariffs on autos, steel, and aluminum return, we could see a major shakeup in Q3.
Now is the time for supply chain professionals to stay agile, monitor rate trends closely, and prepare contingency plans for both scenarios: tariff reinstatement or continued negotiation.
