Thelatest China-US trade agreement is sending ripples across globalsupply chains, with the trans-Pacific air cargo corridor experiencinga sharp and sudden capacity shift—just as new tariff rules takeeffect.
📉 39% Freighter Capacity Drop Leaves Market Vulnerable
In the wake of the U.S. decision to slash its "de minimis"threshold benefits, air cargo freighter activity on the China-USroute has plunged dramatically. According to Rotate, a leading airfreight data analyst, daily average freighter capacity on this vitaltrade lane has fallen by 39% since May 2. Thisstrategic withdrawal of aircraft—many redirected to LatinAmerica—follows a steep drop in e-commerce bookings caused by theremoval of the duty-free status on low-value shipments.
📦 New Trade Terms: Partial Relief, LingeringUncertainty
The recently signed Geneva agreement between the US and Chinareduces tariffs on parcels from 120% to 54%, with the planned hike ofan additional $100 per parcel fee capped and no longer doubling inJune. While this adjustment offers a glimmer of relief to exportersand forwarders, much of the air cargo industry remains on edge.
Kathy Liu, VP of Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco ExpressGroup, shared that “orders have been on hold in China due touncertainty,” but anticipates a phased release of volume in thecoming weeks. However, finding available capacity may provedifficult.
📦 Demand Down, Rates Fall
The numbers are telling. Since late April, Asia-North Americacargo volume has dropped by 20%, while Asia-Latin America volumesrose 23%—though from a much smaller base. In parallel, spot rateson the China-US corridor have dropped 8.8%, according to the BalticAir Index, with Xeneta reporting a 9% fall post-tariff changes.
This sharp correction is driven by the loss of low-valuee-commerce—an essential pillar of trans-Pacific air trade. As Niallvan de Wouw of Xeneta explains, “50% of shipments on the China-USroute are low-value e-commerce… the oxygen was suddenly anddramatically removed.”
🛫 Will Freighters Return?
Some freighters are parked; others have been rerouted. Whetherthey return to the trans-Pacific market hinges on how quickly demandrebounds. Analysts at Rotate cautiously predict “some demand”will return, but its scale remains uncertain due to ongoing tradepolicy ambiguity.
🚢 Spillover to Ocean Freight?
While ocean carriers are bracing for a surge in pent-up demand andfull container loads, most shippers remain cost-conscious. Logisticsprofessionals say that unless the space crunch worsens at sea, few USimporters will pivot back to air given the cost premium.
💡 Expert Takeaway:
Shippers navigating trans-Pacific logistics should stay agile.With reduced freighter capacity, fluid trade policies, and volatiledemand, forwarders and importers must plan strategically—balancingspeed, cost, and reliability. The road ahead is uncertain, butpreparation, data-driven decisions, and flexible transport strategieswill be key to resilience.
