The boom is over—at least for now.
Spot rates on the eastbound Trans-Pacific trade lane are falling fast, raising concerns across the logistics sector that the recent tariff-induced surge in U.S. imports was more flash than substance.
As of mid-June, spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast have plummeted 32% in just one week, dropping to around $3,500 per FEU, with some freight forwarders reporting bookings even lower—as little as $2,700. The East Coast has seena less dramatic, but still notable, decline to around $6,500per FEU, according to data from Platts.
The price rally in May was triggered by the Trump administration’s temporary 90-day pause on a 145% tariff hike on Chinese imports, encouraging U.S. importers to front-load shipments. However, the momentum behind that demand spike is now fading. As one freight forwarder put it, “Everyone expected the boom to last longer—but it might already be over.”
Adding to the volatility, carriers had begun increasing capacity on Trans-Pacific lanes in anticipation of sustained demand. That strategy may have backfired, with bookings at Asian load ports now slowing down despite the added sailings. Forwarders report that even vessel-specific spot deals—especially from China—are now far below listed indexes.
“It’s quite the turnaround,” said Robert Khachatryan, CEO of Freight Right Global Logistics. “What’s driving this? Declining demand primarily.”
Traditionally, peak shipping season runs from August to October. But in this “year of tariffs,” nothing is typical. Some see the recent surge as an early kick-off, while others believe it may have burned itself out before the real season even started.
“There might be another surge,” one carrier executive told JOC, citing shippers’ uncertainty as they await clarity on tariff policy decisions expected in July and August. But many forwarders disagree, saying the market shows no signs of rebounding soon.
All eyes are now on July 1, when carriers are expected to attempt a general rate increase (GRI). Whether these attempts will stick remains to be seen.
“They’ll try to do an increase,” said Jason Cook, CEO of Ardent Global Logistics. “They may try again mid-month.”
For now, the market has entered a "wait-and-see" phase, with declining rates and cautious shippers navigating tariff uncertainty and shifting seasonal demand.
