The US truckload market is becoming increasingly fragile as capacity exits the system, but intermodal volumes and pricing remain under pressure. J.B. Hunt warns that while a disruption could rapidly end the freight recession, the market has not yet proven a sustained structural shift.
The US truckload sector may be closer to a turning point than recent volumes suggest. According to J.B. Hunt, the continued exit of capacity has left the market vulnerable enough that even a modest demand shock could send rates higher and signal the end of the prolonged freight recession.
However, caution remains the prevailing theme. After nearly 18months of “false starts,” J.B. Hunt is not yet forecasting a definitive inflection. Executives emphasized that short-term tightening alone is insufficient to convince shippers that market fundamentals have truly shifted.
Spot truckload rates rose sharply at the end of 2025, increasing19 cents month over month in December to $2.46 per mile on lanes over250 miles. Despite this increase, shippers have largely dismissed the move as seasonal rather than structural.
During ongoing contract negotiations, customers have not treated the December surge as a pricing signal. J.B. Hunt executives noted that shippers are waiting for sustained tightness—driven by both reduced capacity and stronger demand—before acknowledging any long-term change in market conditions.
While truckload shows early signs of stress, intermodal markets remain sluggish. J.B. Hunt reported fourth-quarter intermodal revenue down 3% year over year, with volumes declining 2%.
Regional performance diverged notably:
This uneven recovery reinforces a familiar pattern: intermodal demand typically lags truckload, delaying any meaningful shift in pricing power back to carriers.
Despite weaker volumes, J.B. Hunt’s intermodal operating income rose 16% year over year, driven by cost controls and a deliberate strategy of walking away from low-margin freight.
This approach has come at a cost. In Southern California, J.B. Hunt has lost share to competitors aligned with Union Pacific Railroad, while its exclusive western partner BNSF Railway saw volumes decline. The shift highlights how yield discipline is reshaping competitive dynamics within US intermodal corridors.
Intermodal pricing dynamics remain largely unchanged from a year ago. During the 2025 bid cycle, providers secured modest rate increases on outbound California lanes but struggled elsewhere.
Backhaul routes remain particularly weak, in part due to aggressive pricing by Amazon, which continues to offer low rates to fill return capacity into Southern California. Asa result, early indications suggest limited pricing upside for intermodal contracts heading into 2026.
For global shippers and logistics providers, the message is clear: the US freight market is approaching a sensitive phase, but confidence has not yet returned.
Truckload capacity exits create the conditions for volatility, while intermodal’s slower recovery underscores the need for disciplined network planning and multimodal flexibility. Until demand strengthens consistently, pricing power will remain uneven across modes and regions.
At Worldtop & Meta, we view this moment as a reminder that resilience in logistics increasingly depends on visibility, cost discipline, and the ability to pivot quickly as market signals evolve.
Source:https://www.joc.com/article/truckload-at-a-tipping-point-intermodal-still-lagging-jb-hunt-6153949
