New data shows that the US intermodal sector continues to lag behind other major freight benchmarks, raising concern that the industry is facing more than just a temporary slowdown. While international inbound volumes once powered intermodal growth, the latest trends reveal deep structural challenges in both inland point intermodal (IPI) and domestic 53-foot container markets.
For global shippers and logistics professionals, understanding these dynamics is essential for planning 2026 cargo routing, modal choices, and cost strategies.
For several years, analysts blamed weak intermodal performance on one thing: the prolonged “trucking recession.” An oversupplied trucking sector kept truckload rates low, limiting intermodal’s competitiveness.
But the underlying numbers tell a different story.
Based on data summarized in the JOC article:
—US Real GDP: +25%
— US Long-Haul Truckload:+21%
— US Import TEUs: +42%
—Total US Intermodal: +7%
— International/IPIIntermodal: +5%
— Domestic Intermodal: +9%
Intermodal is moving in the same direction as the overall freightmarket — but at a much slower pace.
IPI has faced headwinds that intermodal operators cannot control.
Since 2015, 77% of US import TEU growth moved to East and Gulf Coast ports, where intermodal share is extremely low(approx. 15%).
Meanwhile, West Coast imports — traditionally intermodal-rich — grew only 25%.
At Southwest ports, an estimated 60% of import TEUs are now transloaded into domestic 53-foot boxes before moving inland.
This directly reduces ISO IPI rail demand.
The result: IPI has become structurally disadvantaged, regardless of market cycles.
Domestic intermodal struggled even during times when it should have surged — such as the 2018 ELD crunch or the 2021 post-pandemic boom.
After service disruptions and precision scheduled railroading(PSR) cut resilience, shippers migrated volume back to trucking. Domestic intermodal’s share fell from 6.9% a decade ago to 6% today.
The Trump administration’s new strict measures on immigrant truck drivers may reduce driver supply, raising long-haul trucking rates.
If trucking capacity tightens faster than new drivers enter the market, the US may see another “mini ELD crunch.” This could give intermodal a temporary competitive advantage.
The intermodal sector will then face a strategic decision:
A. Follow trucking rates upward (focus on margins)
or
B.Hold rates steady to recapture market share
The choice will shape the next five years of US freight modalbalance.
Supply chain planners should anticipate:
With East/Gulf Coast ports capturing the majority of importgrowth, inland rail distribution will remain limited.
Rail congestion, labor availability, and PSR-driven service variability continue to shape transit consistency.
Source:https://www.joc.com/article/data-shows-us-intermodal-has-a-long-term-growth-problem-6116552
