Multipurpose and Heavy Duty (MPV/HL) carriers are keeping a close eye on the tumultuous future — this time it's not the market itself, but the struggling container shipping industry.
Container carriers are under severe pressure. Falling freight prices, softening global demand and the imminent delivery of a large number of new ships present huge challenges for the industry. With container shipping companies trying to fill cabins at no cost, cargo that was often shipped in bulk in the past may be attracted to the container market, threatening the mild growth that MPV operators had originally expected in 2025.
According to the latest analysis by JournalofCommerce, maritime dry goods trade (including dry bulk, containerized, and general cargo) is expected to grow by only about 1% annually through 2026. This is a significant downgrade from forecasts at the beginning of the year, reflecting the pressure of slowing global economic activity and weak retail sales.
The MPV/HL industry is cautiously optimistic despite container shipping being oversupplied, with fleet growth expected to grow by around 1.7% through 2029. Importantly, its relatively small order volume accounts for only about 9% of its existing operating fleet, a stark contrast to the ever-expanding container ship orders.
However, the limited supply itself also presents challenges. At the Journalof Commerce Bulk and Item Cargo Conference last month, shippers expressed concerns about the future availability of dedicated tugboats and deck vessels. A merchant directly said:
“Our biggest challenge is momentum — if there's no room at all, it's worse than price increases.”
For MPV operators, the project goods market is a dawn. The market often has a longer planning cycle, and projects that have made final investment decisions have seen stable cargo flows in 2025, and many are actively targeting boat charters. This shows that the MPV/HL market remains somewhat stable, although general bulk may shift due to cheaper container shipping prices.
However, geopolitics and regulatory risks may still upset the balance. The United States Trade Representative's (USTR) “Section 301 investigation” into Chinese shipbuilding and ship ownership threatens to impose high import tariffs on some ships. While most MPV/HL fleets may avoid these fees, the cost per ship can range from $28 million to nearly $1 million for Chinese-owned ships.
In addition, the USTR investigation is not the only source of risk:
The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) is also investigating global logistics bottlenecks, a process that could reshape the way cargo flows through major trade routes.
“We need to keep an eye on the bigger overall situation,” one commodity owner warned.
Compared to container shipping, the MPV/HL industry is relatively stable, but not without risks. Declining container freight prices, bulk preference shifts, and policy and momentum challenges have cast a long shadow over the industry.
For global logistics operators, the coming year will require flexible responses, sharp strategies and a close focus on cross-sectoral competitive pressures.
Stay tunedGlobal Logistics News Editorial DivisionStay up to date on how global supply chains are changing with this wave of stocks in 2025.
Source: https://www.joc.com/article/container-sector-challenges-cast-shadow-over-mpv-demand-6000490
