Surging cross-border e-commerce and accelerating global investment in AI infrastructure are set to keep ex-Asia air freight capacity tight through 2026, despite airlines adding new freighters and redeploying capacity. Taiwan and Southeast Asia will play an increasingly strategic role.
Air cargo markets out of Asia are entering 2026 under sustained pressure, driven by two powerful and structural forces:
global e-commerce expansion and rapid growth in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
Demand for fast, reliable transport of high-value and time-sensitive goods—ranging from consumer parcels to semiconductors—continues to outpace available capacity during peak periods. While airlines are actively adjusting networks and redeploying freighters, the underlying demand trajectory suggests volatility rather than relief.
Cross-border e-commerce platforms such as Shein, Temu, and TikTok Shop have become permanent fixtures in global air cargo demand. Their operating models—short lead times, frequent replenishment, and high SKU turnover—are structurally aligned with air freight rather than ocean transport.
Even policy disruptions have not reversed this trend. When the United States eliminated the de minimis exemption for Chinese-origin goods, China–US air volumes dropped sharply. However, the decline was offset by:
The result: global air freight demand remained resilient, even as rade lanes shifted.
The rapid construction of AI data centers worldwide is generating a new and highly concentrated source of air freight demand. These facilities require massive volumes of semiconductors and advanced electronics—cargo that is:
Taiwan, as the world’s largest semiconductor supplier, is at the center of this trend. Vietnam is also emerging as a complementary manufacturing base as it expands its semiconductor capabilities.
For air freight markets, this means incremental demand layered on top of already-robust e-commerce volumes—particularly on Asia–North America and Asia–Europe trade lanes.
Airlines are responding by:
However, these additions are uneven across regions and lanes. Data shows Asia–North America air capacity reached a 2025 high in November, yet peak-season congestion and tight space persisted.
Looking ahead, excess capacity may emerge in certain lanes over the longer term—but not uniformly. This imbalance is likely to shape airline behavior, including:
For cargo owners and logistics planners, the message is clear:
Forwarders, meanwhile, will face intensifying competition on major Asian export lanes, putting downward pressure on rates even as operational complexity increases.
Air cargo is no longer a “last-resort” mode—it is a strategic instrument for industries where speed, resilience, and certainty outweigh cost alone.
As AI infrastructure and global e-commerce continue to scale, the companies that succeed in 2026 will be those that treat air freight as a designed capability, not an emergency solution.
Source:https://www.joc.com/article/e-commerce-ai-demand-to-keep-ex-asia-air-freight-under-pressure-6142661
