The latest wave of US tariffs has done more than disrupt trade—it’s redrawn the global air freight map. As manufacturers and e-commerce platforms rethink their market exposure, a new concept is emerging: the “US-plus-one” strategy, mirroring the earlier “China-plus-one” trend in production diversification.
According to The International Air Cargo Association(TIACA), this evolution signals not decline but diversification—a promising development for the air cargo industry.
For years, the “China-plus-one” strategy helped businesses mitigate supply chain risk by relocating manufacturing beyond China. Now, in response to the United States’ shifting trade policies, the focus has moved from production diversification to market diversification.
TIACA Director General Glyn Hughes noted during a Xeneta webinar that carriers are becoming increasingly agile—rapidly adjusting capacity and trade lanes to match these geopolitical shifts.
“We’re now hearing much more about ‘US-plus-one’ from a consumption perspective,” Hughes said. “That means new consumer markets, new trade lanes, and new opportunities for air cargo.”
The removal of the “de minimis” duty exemption for Chinese imports under $800 triggered an immediate impact on trans-Pacific volumes. Dozens of freighters once dedicated to US-China e-commerce were suddenly underutilized.
But leading Chinese e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein reacted swiftly—redirecting their billion-dollar advertising budgets from the US to Europe and redeploying their logistics capacity.
As Xeneta Chief Air Freight Officer Niall van de Wouw highlighted, this pivot was so efficient that air rates stayed remarkably stable, despite surging demand on Asia–Europe routes and a simultaneous drop in US volumes.
“The capacity shift from trans-Pacific to Europe was almost instantaneous,” van de Wouw said. “The industry showed extraordinary flexibility.”
While global spot rates dipped 4% year-over-year in September to$2.54/kg, the Asia–Europe corridor held steady. Shanghai–Europe rates averaged $4.20/kg, while Shanghai–Chicago rates fell 9% to $5.10/kg.
This suggests that while US-bound cargo faces tariff headwinds, Europe and emerging markets are absorbing the displaced capacity, keeping global trade momentum positive.
TIACA and Cargo Facts Consulting note that the shift extends beyond e-commerce. Manufacturers across multiple sectors—especially in electronics, automotive, and time-sensitive components—are reassessing their export routes to hedge against potential US tariff volatility.
“A sudden 25–50% tariff can make shipping to the US uneconomic,” Hughes warned. “That uncertainty encourages producers to explore alternative markets.”
This has accelerated country-of-origin diversification—a structural trend that favors flexible, multi-lane logistics networks. Air cargo providers capable of rapid capacity redeployment stand to gain significantly.
Cargo Facts’ Q4 outlook foresees continued volatility through the peak season, as airlines balance reduced winter schedules with expanding freighter fleets.
Key takeaway:
The message is clear: agility will define competitiveness in the post-tariff era.
While policy shifts continue to inject uncertainty into global trade, they are also catalyzing the next phase of air cargo evolution.
For logistics providers like Worldtop &Meta, this represents a unique opportunity: to connect diversified markets through intelligent routing, verified partnerships, and multimodal agility—transforming disruption into long-term strategic advantage.
Source:https://www.joc.com/article/post-tariff-air-freight-market-diversifies-into-us-plus-one-strategy-tiaca-6091416
