Early 2026 trans-Pacific shipping is seeing a modest pre–Lunar New Year uplift rather than a true surge. Spot rates have risen sharply due to carrier discipline, but underlying demand remains muted, giving shippers leverage as contract negotiations begin.
The annual pre–Lunar New Year (LNY) shipping season is traditionally one of the most important demand indicators for the trans-Pacific trade. In 2026, it is shaping up less as a surge and more as a stress test—revealing whether the market is stabilizing or still structurally oversupplied.
While spot rates from Asia to the US West Coast have climbed more than 40% over the past four weeks, forwarders and carriers remain divided on whether this reflects genuine cargo demand or simply effective capacity management.
US imports typically rise ahead of LNY as Chinese and regionalfactories slow or shut production. This year, the National RetailFederation (NRF) forecasts the first month-over-monthincrease in US imports in six months, driven by seasonalrestocking and spring merchandise.
However, year-over-year volumes remain negative, reflecting the unusually strong import levels seen in early 2025 when retailers frontloaded inventory in anticipation of higher tariffs. The current environment suggests order fulfillment rather than inventory accumulation.
Data from maritime visibility providers indicates that Asia–North America bookings have held steady in recent months. Weekly export bookings to the US West Coast rose notably in December, pointing to resilience—but not a breakout—on the demand side.
Port forecasts reinforce this view. The Ports of Los Angeles andLong Beach are handling solid volumes in early January before aprojected dip into a typical seasonal lull, followed by a rebound inmid-February as pre-holiday cargo arrives.
Lunar New Year falls on February 17 in 2026,later than usual. This timing is expected to push any pre-holidaycargo movement deeper into February, extending the peak window butalso diluting its intensity.
The central question is not whether volumes will rise—but byhow much. Many forwarders report that importers are shippingonly what they need, with little appetite for pulling cargo forward.
Despite softer fundamentals, carriers have succeeded in liftingspot rates through blank sailings and coordinated capacitymanagement, avoiding a rate war that would damage marginsacross the market.
Recent assessments show:
However, proposed January general rate increases (GRIs) arealready showing signs of resistance, reflecting the absence of truespace shortages.
Spot rates remain well above current 2025–26 contract levels, which strengthens carriers’ negotiating positions on paper. Yet the broader market dynamics still favor shippers.
Aggregate vessel supply continues to grow faster than cargo demand, reinforcing a buyer-leaning environment as2026–27 service contract talks accelerate. Many industry observers view this period as a return to more traditional seasonal cycles after years of pandemic-era distortion.
The early weeks of 2026 suggest normalization—not resurgence—will define the trans-Pacific market this year.
