In the volatile world of global ocean freight, disruption has become an unlikely ally for ocean carriers. Years of low margins and overcapacity have seemingly given way to a profitable—albeit controversial—operating model fueled by global crises and strategic restraint. But how long can carriers ride this wave before the tide turns?
From the COVID-19 pandemic to the Red Sea crisis, Panama Canal drought, and mounting global port congestion, external shocks have consistently squeezed supply. Rather than being overwhelmed, many carriers have seized the opportunity—slowing vessels, omitting ports, idling ships, and blanking sailings to effectively withdraw capacity from the market. The result? Soaring freight rates and revitalized balance sheets.
This new model, though lucrative, comes at the expense of reliability. Some observers even suggest that major carriers have grown comfortable with disruptions. As one industry insider bluntly put it: “They like disruptions and are not eager to move to a model where cargo is delivered as booked.”
While 2024 and 2025 were initially forecasted to bring red ink, they’ve instead delivered surprising profits. Yet cracks are forming. The Red Sea could stabilize, U.S.-China trade tensions may ease, and slowing global growth could relieve pressure on congested ports. Meanwhile, an order-book hangover looms, as ships commissioned during the pandemic begin to flood the market.
JP Morgan has warned that the structural overcapacity threatens the industry's fundamentals, even if short-term disruptions continue to prop up rates. In a normalized market, carriers may once again be forced to compete—on service as well as price.
Amid this disruption-first landscape, the Maersk–Hapag-Lloydalliance, dubbed Gemini Cooperation, offers a stark contrast. The duo is betting on service reliability as a competitive edge. With a hub-and-spoke model backed by control over key terminals, Gemini has achieved a 90.7% schedule reliability rate as of March and April 2025—nearly unheard of in today’s fragmented shipping environment.
The initiative is gaining attention. Industry watchers note growing interest from other major carriers in how reliability metrics are calculated, suggesting Gemini’s model is sparking introspection—if not imitation.
“We are now sitting at a reliability level that we haven’t been able to see as an industry for a very long time,” said Charlesvan der Steen, President of Maersk North America. He emphasized the potential to leverage reliable ocean freight to reduce inventory levels and streamline supply chains.
The big question remains: Is Gemini the future, or an exception? If global trade normalizes and rates return to supply-demand equilibrium, shippers may demand more than price—they’ll expect consistency. And if reliability becomes a serious differentiator, Gemini could set a new industry benchmark.
From chaos, perhaps, will come clarity. But for the majority of carriers still thriving on disruption, the real test will be how they adapt when the shocks subside—and when the spotlight shifts from opportunism to operational excellence.
Source:https://www.joc.com/article/carriers-ride-wave-of-disruptive-operating-model-but-for-how-long-6023312
