US West Coast ports are expected to remain congestion-free in early 2026 as import demand from Asia stays muted. Macro economic pressure, tariff uncertainty, and cautious retailer ordering are suppressing volumes, while improved coordination across the logistics ecosystem is helping ports absorb volatility efficiently.
US West Coast container gateways are entering 2026 with relatively light import volumes, reducing the risk of congestion during what is typically a volatile period. After a year of tariff-driven demand swings in 2025, ports such as Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, and the Northwest Seaport Alliance are positioned for a smoother first quarter as cargo flows soften.
Despite episodic surges last year, West Coast ports successfully maintained the market share gains achieved in 2024, benefiting from significantly shorter Asia–US transit times compared with East and Gulf Coast routings.
The first half of 2025 saw strong import activity as US shippersfrontloaded cargo amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. That momentumfaded in the second half of the year, with volumes declining atdouble-digit rates in several months.
Overall, US West Coast imports from Asia were up only marginallyyear over year through November. Yet the region retained roughly 59%of total US Asia-origin containerized imports, underscoring itsstrategic importance despite demand fluctuations.
A key differentiator was how port stakeholders managed volatility.Drawing on lessons from the pandemic era, carriers, terminals,truckers, rail operators, and warehouses improved data sharing andforecasting coordination. This resulted in shorter truck turn times,reduced container dwell times, and more fluid inlanddistribution—even during peak months when monthly imports exceededone million TEUs.
Several macroeconomic factors are weighing on US import demand entering 2026. Rising inflation, declining consumer confidence, and higher unemployment are dampening retail appetite for inventory replenishment. As a result, the traditional pre–Lunar New Year shipping surge in January and February is expected to be significantly weaker than normal.
In addition, continued uncertainty around US tariff policy is encouraging retailers to take a conservative approach to ordering spring and summer merchandise, potentially extending year-over-year import declines through the first half of the year.
While port operations themselves are expected to remain smooth,landside risks warrant attention. A major bridge redecking project atthe Vincent Thomas Bridge—one of the primary access points to thePort of Los Angeles—has begun and will continue through 2026.Although alternative routes and real-time traffic updates are inplace, stakeholders remain alert to the possibility of localizedtrucking bottlenecks.
For cargo owners and logistics planners, the current environment presents both opportunities and cautions:
Looking ahead, a potential return of container services to the Suez Canal could shift competitive dynamics again, allowing East and Gulf Coast ports to reclaim some of the market share lost over the past two years.
Early 2026 is shaping up to be a period of operational stability for US West Coast ports—not because of booming demand, but due to subdued volumes combined with structurally improved coordination across the supply chain. For shippers, this underscores the value of agility, visibility, and contingency planning in an increasingly policy- and infrastructure-sensitive logistics environment.
