As the second half of 2025 begins, the global container shipping market is undergoing bipolarization. On the one hand, trans-Pacific trade is experiencing a marked slowdown; on the other hand, Asia to Europe routes are showing strong momentum, benefiting from Europe's economic stability and growing consumer demand.

Trans-Pacific: Imports end early, tariff pressure intensifies

To get imports done before the U.S. tariffs take effect, many shippers accelerated their imports, resulting in a brief spike in shipments. However, this momentum is fading fast. THE 90-DAY GLOBAL TARIFF SUSPENSION WILL END ON JULY 9 AND THE CHINA-RELATED SUSPENSION WILL ALSO EXPIRE ON AUGUST 14, AND THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN-AMERICAN TRADE IS FULL OF UNCERTAINTY.

Most of the early imports were completed in the first half of the year, leading to an excess of importer inventories, according to PeterSand, chief analyst at Xeneta. “Demand is expected to fall significantly even if tariffs remain low,”

Immediate shipping rates reflect this trend: Asia to the U.S. West Coast freight rates fell to $2,800 from a June 6 high of $6,040 per square foot, down more than 54%. There is a similar trend in East Coast freight prices. Despite a recent or short-term peak in the volume of West Coast ports, the overall trend remains downward.

Bimco analyst NielsRasmussen pointed out that U.S. tariffs are expected to rise to 55% in the future, coupled with economic weakness, to lead to a further decline in imports. “We forecast a significant decline in imports in the second half of the year due to earlier imports and tariff increases.”

Asia - Europe: Economic recovery, freight prices climb

In comparison, routes from Asia to Europe are rapidly recovering. Bimco has raised its forecast for volume growth in Europe and the Mediterranean region from 3.5% to 6% in 2025. The region's volume growth of 7.3% in the four months prior to this year shows that economic fundamentals are improving, including falling inflation, lower interest rates, stable employment and a strong euro.

Retail sales were strong and consumer confidence was stable, supporting shipping demand.

ASIA-NORDIC INSTANT SHIPPING RATES HAVE SURGED NEARLY 49% SINCE MAY 31 TO $2,842 PER 40-FOOT COUNTER. Although shipping rates have been somewhat stable recently, carriers plan to cut their throughput significantly from August, with an estimated decrease of 90,000TEUs in the month. If demand remains stable, freight rates are feared to rise again.

Geologic Risks Keep Red Sea Route Diverting

As safety risks in the Red Sea area have not been eliminated, ships continue to choose to bypass the southern end of Africa. Although Husey's armed forces have not launched new attacks on merchant ships since December 2024, analysts warn there are still potential threats in the future. Even though there has been an initial ceasefire agreement, the carriers have not resumed routes through the Suez Canal.

Bimco predicts that once the route resumes through Suez, the shortened sailings will lead to a reduction of about 10% in the demand for ships.

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REVELATION TO THE MERCHANT

- ASIA-US TRADE: TARIFF VARIABLES ARE LARGE, DEMAND WEAKENS, FREIGHT PRICE SHOCKS, AND INVENTORY STRATEGY IS CRUCIAL.
- ASIA-EUROPE TRADE: CONSUMER STRENGTH RECOVERS, SHIPPING PRICES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE, AND IT'S TIME TO SEIZE MARKET OPPORTUNITIES.
- Global route planning: The Red Sea risks not only, but bypassing Africa increases costs and time efficiency, but also is key to stable operations.

In such a polarized market environment, a logistics team with strategic flexibility, real-time data mastery and risk response capabilities will stand out in the international supply chain competition.

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Source: https://www.joc.com/article/trans-pacific-sailing-into-slowdown-asia-europe-outlook-brightens-analysts-6031694