The US trucking industry faces a prolonged period of excess capacity that is unlikely to ease until 2027, according to new insights from FTR Transportation Intelligence. This persistent imbalance between supply and demand is reshaping rate dynamics and competitive pressures across the truckload sector.
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A Market Defined by Too Many Trucks

Despite three years of subdued freight demand, the carrier population has stabilized at historically high levels. Small trucking firms in particular remain significantly above pre-pandemic numbers.

• 39% more small carriers (fleets with one to five trucks) were active in August 2025 compared to March 2020.
• Meanwhile, large carriers (101+ trucks) have seen driver employment decline slightly (–1.1%).

This structural shift has redistributed driver capacity from major fleets to independent operators, leaving the market crowded with small players that show little sign of exiting.
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Utilization Stuck Below Growth Threshold

Active truck utilization has hovered between 92% and 94%since 2024, with no meaningful tightening expected before2027. For carriers, this means a heightened focus on cost-cutting and productivity gains to survive in an over-supplied environment.

Rate recovery is not expected to keep pace with inflation:

• Dry van contract rates: projected +1.5% in 2025, +1.2% in 2026 (after a –3.1% drop in 2024).
• Dry van spot rates: forecast +1.3% in 2025, +1.4% in 2026.

The sluggish growth underscores the absence of strong demand catalysts, such as a surge in consumer goods spending.
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The Demand vs. Supply Debate

Industry experts remain divided on how the imbalance will resolve:

• Some argue demand growth is needed to absorb excess trucks.
• Others, including Werner Enterprises, believe capacity reductions—through carrier failures or consolidations—will be the real driver of rate recovery.

Mid-sized carriers (200–300 trucks) may be most vulnerable, as they lack the resilience of larger fleets but carry higher fixed costs than small independents.
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What This Means for Shippers

For shippers, extended overcapacity translates into sustained pricing power through 2027. With more trucks than freight, competition among carriers will keep contract and spot rates in check. However, volatility risks remain—economic downturns, unexpected demand surges, or regulatory shifts could alter the trajectory quickly.
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Key Takeaways

• Excess trucking capacity will last until at least 2027.
• Small carriers dominate, with employment still 39% above pre-pandemic levels.
• Rates will inch upward but lag behind inflation, preserving shipper advantages.
• Demand growth remains elusive; capacity cuts may drive eventual recovery.
• Shippers should leverage this window to renegotiate contracts, diversify providers, and strengthen resilience.
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Source:https://www.joc.com/article/excess-truck-capacity-to-linger-through-2027-ftr-6077828

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