TL;DR

January air cargo demand held up well on key Asia export lanes,which is expected to dampen (not eliminate) theusual pre–Lunar New Year spike. With Lunar New Year starting Feb.17, volumes and spot rates are forecast to rise gradually over the final two weeks before factory closures, with tightening on select airport pairings rather than a broad-basedsurge.
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What the market is seeing heading into Lunar NewYear

With the holiday falling relatively late this year (Feb. 17), analysts and forwarders expect a measured peak: asteady build in demand and pricing, not the sharp “last-minute scramble” seen in some years.
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Why the peak may be softer than normal

Forwarder feedback in early February indicates no majoruplift yet across China–Europe and wider AsiaPacific–North America flows—suggesting demand is real, but not“exceptional.”
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Capacity and trade-lane shifts are shaping pricing power

Capacity dynamics are uneven by lane—and that matters more thanheadline “Asia out” volume.
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China inland hubs to Europe: capacity expanding

Capacity growth is notable from China’s inland gateways Chongqing, Chengdu, and Zhengzhou into Europe,supporting January’s “robust” volume growth on the Asia–Europelane.
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Asia to the US: mixed picture, with Vietnam still building

While overall Asia-Pacific to US airfreight capacity was down year over year, Vietnam-origin capacity continues to grow, reflecting changing sourcing patterns and tariff impacts.
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Tariffs and de minimis changes are influencing cargo flows

New US trade policy shifts are altering where low-value and component cargo is originating.
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De minimis policy tightening adds friction tolow-value imports

The US removed its de minimis duty exemption for low-value goods from all trading partners on Aug. 29 (following removal of duty-free access for low-value Chinese imports in May), adding a policy-driven headwind to some e-commerce-style flows.
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Rates: steady-to-firm, with selective tightening

World ACD data indicates that after two weeks of strong sequential growth, week-over-week volume growth stalled last week: volumes to the US were down 1% YoY, while volumes to Europe were up 7% YoY.
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Spot rates moved up as the market edged into peak

Spot rates rose week over week to $4.02/kg to the US (+6%)and $3.80/kg to Europe (+7%), as capacity tightenedon certain airport pairs.
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Key takeaways for shippers and forwarders

• Plan for a gradual peak: Expect incremental rate firming rather than a single “blowout” week.
• Watch gateway-level constraints: Tightness appears more pairing-specific than market-wide.
• Lane winners remain components-driven: Demand out of Taipei and Vietnam is reported as solid, with strength linked to AI-related components supporting higher rate floors.
• Policy is now a demand variable: Tariffs and de minimis tightening are actively reshaping origin mixes—especially into North America.
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What this signals for 2026: steady growth,shifting patterns

IATA’s outlook points to 2.4% global airfreight demand growth in 2026 (slower than 2025’s 3.4% growth over 2024), with trade and geopolitical developments continuing to redirect capacity to match evolving trade patterns.

Source:https://www.joc.com/article/solid-january-demand-to-largely-mute-lunar-new-year-air-freight-rush-6163435