Retailers boost July imports, but momentum won’t last

In a strategic response to the Trump administration’s surprise extension of the reciprocal tariff deadline to August 1, U.S. retailers are pulling forward imports to safeguard their holiday inventory and reduce exposure to looming trade costs.

According to the latest Global Port Tracker (GPT)released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, July 2025 imports are forecast to reach 2.36million TEUs, marking the highest monthly volume in the past 18 months — and the peak of 2025. That figure represents an 11% increase from June and even surpasses July 2024’snumbers.

“Retailers have brought in as much merchandise aspossible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” saidJonathan Gold, NRF’s VP for supply chain and customs policy.

📉 A Short-Term Surge with a Long-Term Slowdown

While July’s forecasted spike offers a temporary lift, GPT projections show a significant drop in volumes for the remainder of the year:

• August: 2.08M TEUs (↑5% vs. June forecast, ↓10% YoY)
• September: 1.82M TEUs (↑2.2% MoM, ↓20% YoY)
• October: 1.81M TEUs (↑0.5%, ↓19.1% YoY)
• November (initial projection): 1.7M TEUs (↓16.2% YoY)

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett attributes the upcoming decline to persistent policy unpredictability.

“The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable,” said Hackett. “Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.”

🚢 Carriers Adjust Capacity as Trans-Pacific Volumes Dip

In anticipation of lower demand post-July, shipping lines are already scaling back. Analysts from maritime intelligence firm eeSea report a 6.2% decrease in tonnage from Asia to the U.S. West Coast planned for August.

The GPT, which tracks container imports through 13 major U.S. ports, confirms a mild rise in recent months:

• June (projected): 2.06M TEUs (↑2.5% from last month’s forecast)
• May (actual): 1.95M TEUs (↑2% from prior estimate)

🔍 Key Takeaway for Logistics Stakeholders

With global retail chains accelerating shipments ahead of unpredictable tariff shifts, the logistics sector must remain agile. Expect short-term congestion at U.S. ports in July, followed by a cooling period through fall. Flexibility in carrier scheduling, real-time inventory visibility, and geopolitical monitoring will be critical for importers navigating the next six months.

Stay ahead of shifting trade winds. Follow us for monthly breakdowns on port volume trends, policy impacts, and real-world freight strategies.

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